Tracing the Israel lobby’s role in pushing united states of America strikes on Iranian nuclear sites in the Israel-Iran war 2025

This study examines the extent to which AIPAC shaped the United States decision to conduct Operation Midnight Hammer limited airstrikes on nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan during the Israel–Iran War of June 2025. Using a qualitative explanatory design with process tracing, grounded in Putnam's Two-Level Game theory and State-Lobby Symbiosis framework, the study traces three causal mechanisms: AIPAC's narrative framing of Iran as a nuclear aggressor, congressional mobilization through House Resolution 521 and neutralization of War Powers constraints, and domestic win-set expansion that reduced executive political cost for intervention. Data was drawn from congressional records, AIPAC action alerts, DoD statements, and campaign finance data. Findings demonstrate that AIPAC did not cause the war but decisively shaped its form, making a limited strike the most politically viable outcome. The AIPAC-skeptical bloc failed to impose binding constraints due to agenda control and electoral deterrence.